On the Ball

January 18, 2006

On the Ball: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making, by [the delectable] Shane Frederick at MIT. The influences of IQ on judgment and decision making, for several reasons a suggestive but avoided topic for the last while.

 Researchers may be reluctant to study something they don’t find interesting, that isn’t perceived to vary much within the subject pool, conveniently obtained, and that will just get them into trouble anyway. But... a neglected aspect does not cease to operate because it is neglected, and there is no good reason for ignoring the possibility that general intelligence (or various more specific cognitive abilities) are important causal determinants of decision making.

Along the way quite interesting in its invocation of "System 1" -- instantaneous cognition -- and "System 2" -- laborious, e.g., finding the square root of a sum -- decisionmaking. As well as in the measurement of skills that involve "reaching the correct answer [by requiring] the suppression of an erroneous answer that springs 'impulsively' to mind."

Via Marginal Revolution, who cut to the chase:

Expressed loosely, being smart makes women patient and makes men take more risks.

Upon further reading: How impressive is it that the footnotes are delightful and intriguing?

24 Slovic and Tversky (1974) use an eloquent and entertaining mock debate between Allais and Savage to illustrate opposing views on the related issue of whether the opinions of people who have deliberated longer over an issue ought to count more.

This suggests a glimmer of explanation for our anecdotal experience that people of more "progressive" tint have reacted negatively to the summaries of Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations The immediate explanation was their fear that less-linear decisionmaking opens the door to "prejudice," -- as though labored doesn't... But it may also be related to decisions' legitimacy being based on effort, and good, dutiful [yes] motive.

Frederick is a charming writer, judging from this paper. Here are other publications.